Ayutthaya FC 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ayutthaya Province Stadium plays host to Ayutthaya FC versus Sukhothai FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 4 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ayutthaya FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 2.17 conceded. However, 2.17 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 games at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Sukhothai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 83%.
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 100% and Sukhothai FC 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 83% | Sukhothai FC 17%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.16 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.849 / defence 1.402 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.804 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.185. Data: 6 Ayutthaya FC games / 36 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 30% | Draw 32% | Sukhothai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Sukhothai FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 30% | Draw 32% | Sukhothai FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.16 / Sukhothai FC 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.849 / def 1.402 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.804 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sukhothai FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 4 October 2025 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 30% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 2.17 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ayutthaya FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Sukhothai FC's attack (0.80x) against Ayutthaya FC's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
30%
3.33
32%
3.16
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.34
Sukhothai FC xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.68
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.34 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Ayutthaya FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Ayutthaya FC against 1.00 for Sukhothai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.67 scored and 0.83 conceded. Ayutthaya FC's scoring rate against Sukhothai FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.67 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ayutthaya FC
2
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sukhothai FC tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Ayutthaya FC, 33% for Sukhothai FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Ayutthaya FC and 0% for Sukhothai FC.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 33%; Sukhothai FC in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 33% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 0% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Ayutthaya FC and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.16 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.34 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 30% | Draw 32% | Sukhothai FC 38%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 83%, Sukhothai FC 17%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.00 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.