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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Ayutthaya FC 1-3 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Ratchaburi 2.23 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 0.92, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 16% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 60%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 70%, Ratchaburi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights