🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Ayutthaya FC host Ratchaburi at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0W 3D 2L at Ayutthaya Province Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Ratchaburi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Trading Patterns

Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 90% and Ratchaburi 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 70% | Ratchaburi 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Ratchaburi 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.811 / defence 1.421 | Ratchaburi attack 1.298 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.207. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Ayutthaya FC games / 39 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 16% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 60%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights