Ayutthaya FC 1-3 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ayutthaya FC host Ratchaburi at Ayutthaya Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ayutthaya FC have posted 0W 3D 2L at Ayutthaya Province Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 8W 0D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ayutthaya FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Ratchaburi in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 90% and Ratchaburi 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 70% | Ratchaburi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Ratchaburi 2.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.811 / defence 1.421 | Ratchaburi attack 1.298 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.207. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 2.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Ayutthaya FC games / 39 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 16% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 60%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.12 / 2.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 16% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 62% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.12 / Ratchaburi 2.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.811 / def 1.421 | Ratchaburi attack 1.298 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
2.23
Ratchaburi xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 3 Ratchaburi.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 16% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ayutthaya FC's attack rating (0.81) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 2.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
16%
6.28
24%
4.16
60%
1.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
3.35
2.23
Ratchaburi xG
6.28
16%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.67
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
11%
9.25
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
2%
58.12
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 2.23 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 2W 4D 4L from 10 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 2L across 10 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ayutthaya FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ayutthaya FC have managed 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 4W 0D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 2.20 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 90% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ratchaburi in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Ratchaburi's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.60 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Ayutthaya FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ayutthaya FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-2 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 100%, Ratchaburi at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ayutthaya FC) and 40% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 40% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 40% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ayutthaya FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Ayutthaya FC 1-3 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.12 xG and Ratchaburi 2.23 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Ratchaburi attack 1.30 / defence 0.92, drawn from 10/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 16% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 60%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 70%, Ratchaburi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.