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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Ayutthaya FC 1-3 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 0.90 xG and Prachuap 1.23 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.29 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 24% | Draw 35% | Prachuap 41%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 41%, Prachuap 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.19 PPG, Prachuap 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights