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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat Ayutthaya FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chonburi FC beat Ayutthaya FC 1-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.41 xG and Chonburi FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 40% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 29%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chonburi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 62%, Chonburi FC 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.

Chonburi FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 0.88 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights