Ayutthaya FC 1-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Chonburi FC travel to Ayutthaya Province Stadium to take on Ayutthaya FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ayutthaya FC stand at 1W 4D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 0.88 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.88 conceded. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC at Ayutthaya Province Stadium this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 0W 5D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.62 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ayutthaya FC 0.88 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.62 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Ayutthaya FC in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ayutthaya FC 88% and Chonburi FC 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ayutthaya FC 62% | Chonburi FC 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ayutthaya FC 1.41 xG and Chonburi FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.852 / defence 1.378 | Chonburi FC attack 0.765 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.105. Data: 8 Ayutthaya FC games / 8 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Ayutthaya FC 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Chonburi FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ayutthaya FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ayutthaya FC 100% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ayutthaya Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ayutthaya FC 40% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Ayutthaya FC 1.41 / Chonburi FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ayutthaya FC attack 0.852 / def 1.378 | Chonburi FC attack 0.765 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ayutthaya FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Chonburi FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Ayutthaya FC 1 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium.
What competition is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ayutthaya FC a 40% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC in?
Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 1W-4D-3L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 0W-5D-3L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ayutthaya FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Ayutthaya FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.19
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ayutthaya FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.17
Chonburi FC xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ayutthaya FC and 1.17 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ayutthaya FC's recent record stands at 1W 4D 3L from 8 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 3L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ayutthaya FC on 0.88 PPG, Chonburi FC on 0.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ayutthaya FC have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ayutthaya FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 0.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ayutthaya FC have gone 1W 4D 3L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ayutthaya FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.75 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ayutthaya FC
0
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Chonburi FC 0-1 Ayutthaya FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chonburi FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ayutthaya FC at 100%, Chonburi FC at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ayutthaya FC) and 50% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ayutthaya FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ayutthaya FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ayutthaya FC's games and 50% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ayutthaya FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ayutthaya FC's recent games and 50% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ayutthaya FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Ayutthaya FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chonburi FC defy the odds to beat Ayutthaya FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Ayutthaya FC 1-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.41 xG and Chonburi FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chonburi FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.38 against Chonburi FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 40% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 29%, with Ayutthaya FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Chonburi FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 62%, Chonburi FC 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 0.88 PPG, Chonburi FC 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.