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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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BG Pathum United cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ayutthaya FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

BG Pathum United beat Ayutthaya FC 0-2 at Ayutthaya Province Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ayutthaya FC 1.03 xG and BG Pathum United 1.26 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ayutthaya FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against BG Pathum United attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ayutthaya FC 28% | Draw 32% | BG Pathum United 40%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ayutthaya FC 50%, BG Pathum United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

BG Pathum United's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ayutthaya FC 1.30 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights