Yverdon Sport 3-0 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Yverdon Sport take on FC Winterthur.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Winterthur to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Winterthur — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 0.70 (FC Winterthur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 1 for FC Winterthur and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Yverdon Sport trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Winterthur trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 55% and FC Winterthur 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 55% | FC Winterthur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.04 xG and FC Winterthur 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.663 / defence 0.969 | FC Winterthur attack 0.785 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.235. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Yverdon Sport games / 53 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 36% | FC Winterthur 29%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | FC Winterthur 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 30% | FC Winterthur 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 36% | FC Winterthur 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.04 / FC Winterthur 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.663 / def 0.969 | FC Winterthur attack 0.785 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Winterthur xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport 3 - 0 FC Winterthur.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 35% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Record (4 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 3 | FC Winterthur 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FC Winterthur (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Yverdon Sport's attack at 0.66x the league average against FC Winterthur's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Winterthur's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.89
36%
2.78
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
1.98
0.94
FC Winterthur xG
2.89
35%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.39
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.94 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Yverdon Sport come into this having played 58 games, going 17W 14D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Winterthur sit at 1.09 PPG from 58 outings (16W 15D 27L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.12 PPG, FC Winterthur on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Yverdon Sport's home form reads 15W 6D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Winterthur have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (4W 10D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 1.34 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur in 69%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Winterthur away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.76 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Feb 2025, when Yverdon Sport won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Winterthur specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Yverdon Sport
4
Draws
1
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 2, FC Winterthur have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when FC Winterthur 2-2 Yverdon Sport.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 52%, FC Winterthur 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Yverdon Sport and 62% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Winterthur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Yverdon Sport's games and 69% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 62% of FC Winterthur's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Yverdon Sport run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport beat FC Winterthur 3-0 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.04 xG and FC Winterthur 0.94 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Yverdon Sport beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Winterthur landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.66 / defence 0.97 against FC Winterthur attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 36% | FC Winterthur 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Yverdon Sport win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 55%, FC Winterthur 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.12 PPG, FC Winterthur 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Yverdon Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.