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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Yverdon Sport take on FC Winterthur.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Winterthur to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.

FC Winterthur — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, FC Winterthur have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Yverdon Sport) versus 0.70 (FC Winterthur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Yverdon Sport, 1 for FC Winterthur and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Yverdon Sport trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

FC Winterthur trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 55% and FC Winterthur 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 55% | FC Winterthur 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.04 xG and FC Winterthur 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.663 / defence 0.969 | FC Winterthur attack 0.785 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.235. Yverdon Sport's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 53 Yverdon Sport games / 53 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 35% | Draw 36% | FC Winterthur 29%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | FC Winterthur 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 30% | FC Winterthur 50% BTTS from recent games.

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