Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Yverdon Sport welcome FC Sion to Stade Municipal. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Yverdon Sport — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Sion's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Yverdon Sport at 1.00 PPG versus FC Sion's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Yverdon Sport have won 0, FC Sion 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
FC Sion in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 53% versus FC Sion 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 47% | FC Sion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.51 xG and FC Sion 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 0.819 / defence 1.063 | FC Sion attack 0.721 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.181. Data: 66 Yverdon Sport games / 33 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 22%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | FC Sion 4.55. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yverdon Sport are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Yverdon Sport 40% | FC Sion 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.51 / FC Sion 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 0.819 / def 1.063 | FC Sion attack 0.721 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Sion xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Yverdon Sport 1 - 1 FC Sion.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 51% chance of winning, FC Sion a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
Record (3 meetings): Yverdon Sport 0W | Draws 2 | FC Sion 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion in?
Yverdon Sport (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yverdon Sport's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC Sion's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, FC Sion's attack versus Yverdon Sport's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.69
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.41
0.91
FC Sion xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 0.91 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 8W 10D 16L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yverdon Sport on 1.00 PPG, FC Sion on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 3W 2D 12L from 17 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Current Season
FC Sion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Sion away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Yverdon Sport's record when hosting FC Sion specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Yverdon Sport
3
Draws
1
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
From 4 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 0, FC Sion have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yverdon Sport see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 41%, FC Sion 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Yverdon Sport) and 47% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport have failed to score in 35% of games; FC Sion in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Sion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Yverdon Sport's recent matches and 53% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Yverdon Sport's recent games and 47% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Sion tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Yverdon Sport and FC Sion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Yverdon Sport and FC Sion finished level at 1-1 at Stade Municipal, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.51 xG and FC Sion 0.91 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against FC Sion attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 51% | Draw 27% | FC Sion 22%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 47%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Sion's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.00 PPG, FC Sion 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Sion (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.