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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Yverdon Sport defy the odds to beat Servette FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Yverdon Sport beat Servette FC 2-3 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.33 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.93 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Yverdon Sport outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 68% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 13%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Yverdon Sport win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 54%, Yverdon Sport 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Yverdon Sport's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Yverdon Sport winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Servette FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights