🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Servette FC at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs Yverdon Sport encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Servette FC host Yverdon Sport at Stade de Genève in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Servette FC — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Servette FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Servette FC at Stade de Genève this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Super League games this season, Yverdon Sport have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On current form, Servette FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Servette FC, 2 for Yverdon Sport and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Servette FC in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Yverdon Sport in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 65% and Yverdon Sport 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 54% | Yverdon Sport 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.33 xG and Yverdon Sport 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.040 / defence 0.941 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.833 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.182. Yverdon Sport bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Servette FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Servette FC games / 60 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Servette FC 68% | Draw 19% | Yverdon Sport 13%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Yverdon Sport 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Servette FC are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Servette FC 70% | Yverdon Sport 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights