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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out Servette FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat Servette FC 0-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.48 xG and FC Thun 1.86 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Servette FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Thun landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.14 against FC Thun attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/12 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 31% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 47%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 83%, FC Thun 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Thun's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights