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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.25 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.32 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 18% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 60%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 64%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.43 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights