Servette FC 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Servette FC host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de Genève in Super League (matchday 26). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Servette FC have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Servette FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC ST. Gallen's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Servette FC's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Servette FC's games and 80% of FC ST. Gallen's (from Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Servette FC have won 2, FC ST. Gallen 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.9 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Jan 2026, ended Servette FC 4–2 FC ST. Gallen — a Servette FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Servette FC in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC ST. Gallen in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 71% and FC ST. Gallen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 64% | FC ST. Gallen 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Servette FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC ST. Gallen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Servette FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.25 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.928 / defence 1.212 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.233 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.761 / away 1.553. FC ST. Gallen bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Servette FC's projected output down. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack rating of 1.233, which lifts their away xG to 2.32. Servette FC's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC ST. Gallen's projected output up. Data: built from Servette FC's last 58 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 58.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 18% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 60%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 5.62 | Draw 4.42 | FC ST. Gallen 1.68. The model has a clear lean to FC ST. Gallen (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.25 / 2.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Servette FC 60% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 18% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Servette FC 1.25 / FC ST. Gallen 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.928 / def 1.212 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.233 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.761 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
2.32
FC ST. Gallen xG
66%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen?
Servette FC 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 26) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 18% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 60% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Servette FC's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC ST. Gallen's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Servette FC's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 58 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
18%
5.62
23%
4.42
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
0 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.57
2.32
FC ST. Gallen xG
5.62
18%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
10%
10.20
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
2%
57.28
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Servette FC and 2.32 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 23W 21D 19L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
FC ST. Gallen's form line: 27W 17D 19L from 63 games, 1.56 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Servette FC on 1.43 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 31 home games (11W 12D 8L).
On the road, FC ST. Gallen have gone 11W 10D 10L from their last 31 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Servette FC are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.62 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 65%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 23W 21D 19L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 27W 17D 19L in their last 63 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Servette FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.45 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
FC ST. Gallen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Aug 2025, when FC ST. Gallen won Servette FC 1-4 FC ST. Gallen.
Servette FC's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Servette FC
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FC ST. Gallen 2-1 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Servette FC at 68%, FC ST. Gallen at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Servette FC) and 52% (FC ST. Gallen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Servette FC's games and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Servette FC's matches and 52% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Servette FC's recent matches and 74% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.25 xG and FC ST. Gallen 2.32 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 18% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 60%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 64%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.43 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.