Servette FC 0-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus FC Sion in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Servette FC at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sion's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, FC Sion have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Sion are 0.70 PPG clear of Servette FC over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) — Servette FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Sion in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Servette FC, who have won 3 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against FC Sion — FC Sion have 0 wins, with 5 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Jan 2026, ended Servette FC 3–3 FC Sion — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Servette FC and goals — 3 wins from 8 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 72% and FC Sion 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 62% | FC Sion 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Servette FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while FC Sion have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Sion surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Servette FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 0.920 / defence 1.125 | FC Sion attack 0.953 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.545. Data: built from Servette FC's last 59 games and FC Sion's last 59.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 37%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 2.90 | Draw 3.56 | FC Sion 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.59 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), yet FC Sion are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates FC Sion as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Servette FC's last 10 home games and FC Sion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Servette FC 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Servette FC 1.59 / FC Sion 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 0.920 / def 1.125 | FC Sion attack 0.953 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
FC Sion xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs FC Sion kick off?
Servette FC vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Servette FC 0 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is Servette FC vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs FC Sion part of?
Servette FC vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 34% chance of winning, FC Sion a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Servette FC and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (0.92) and FC Sion's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.95x) against Servette FC's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 59 games and FC Sion's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
34%
2.90
28%
3.56
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.66
FC Sion xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Servette FC and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Servette FC and 1.66 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 22D 19L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 21W 21D 22L from 64 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Servette FC against 1.31 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 31 home games (10W 13D 8L).
On the road, FC Sion have gone 6W 9D 16L from their last 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.34 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 23W 22D 19L in their last 64 games (1.42 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 21W 21D 22L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or FC Sion away?
Servette FC's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 1.39 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Servette FC won Servette FC 5-0 FC Sion on 13 May 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 3D 0L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Servette FC
6
Draws
0
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 4, FC Sion have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Servette FC 3-0 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and FC Sion?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Servette FC 68%, FC Sion 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Servette FC) and 48% (FC Sion).
On the defensive side: FC Sion in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and FC Sion matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Servette FC's games and 61% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Servette FC and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Servette FC's recent games and 48% of FC Sion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Servette FC and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Servette FC's recent matches and 77% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Servette FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 27, as Servette FC and FC Sion drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.66 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Servette FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against FC Sion attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 37%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.42 PPG, FC Sion 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.