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Stalemate at Servette FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 27, as Servette FC and FC Sion drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.59 xG and FC Sion 1.66 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Servette FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against FC Sion attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 34% | Draw 28% | FC Sion 37%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 62%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sion's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.42 PPG, FC Sion 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights