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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Servette FC and FC Sion share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Servette FC and FC Sion finished level at 3-3 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 1.47 xG and FC Sion 1.54 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Servette FC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Sion outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against FC Sion attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Servette FC 36% | Draw 25% | FC Sion 39%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 63%, FC Sion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Servette FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Servette FC 1.47 PPG, FC Sion 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights