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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne and Servette FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne and Servette FC finished level at 3-3 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.67 xG and Servette FC 1.72 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Servette FC outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Servette FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 36% | Draw 26% | Servette FC 38%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, Servette FC 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Servette FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, Servette FC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights