Lausanne vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 43%, yet in-form FC Vaduz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lausanne vs FC Vaduz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Tuiliere plays host to Lausanne versus FC Vaduz in Super League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lausanne's overall Super League record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuiliere: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Lausanne are significantly better at Stade de la Tuiliere than their overall form suggests.
FC Vaduz (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 1D 6L from 7 away games — 0.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.14 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Vaduz are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lausanne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Vaduz in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lausanne lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 1–3 with FC Vaduz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lausanne — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
FC Vaduz — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 42% and FC Vaduz 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 42% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.06 xG and FC Vaduz 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.927 / defence 1.279 | FC Vaduz attack 0.853 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.744. Data: 45 Lausanne games / 12 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 43% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 37%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.33 | Draw 4.76 | FC Vaduz 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Vaduz (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 70% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 43% | Draw 21% | FC Vaduz 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Lausanne 2.06 / FC Vaduz 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.927 / def 1.279 | FC Vaduz attack 0.853 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.90
FC Vaduz xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Vaduz kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz part of?
Lausanne vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 43% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 37% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Lausanne and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Vaduz?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 0 | FC Vaduz 1W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Vaduz in?
Lausanne (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Vaduz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lausanne's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC Vaduz's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Vaduz's attack (0.85x) against Lausanne's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 45/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
43%
2.35
21%
4.80
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.96
1.90
FC Vaduz xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.71
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
6%
15.75
5%
21.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.90 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Vaduz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lausanne come into this having played 12 games, going 1W 3D 8L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Vaduz sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (3W 1D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Lausanne against 0.83 for FC Vaduz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lausanne's home form reads 0W 2D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Vaduz have taken 0.17 points per game from 6 outings (0W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.00 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Vaduz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 1W 3D 8L in their last 12 games (0.50 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Vaduz away?
Lausanne's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 0.33 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lausanne
0
Draws
1
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 0, FC Vaduz have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when FC Vaduz 3-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Vaduz?
FC Vaduz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lausanne, 100% for FC Vaduz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lausanne's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do Lausanne and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.