Lausanne 4-5 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Thun at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Thun make the trip to Stockhorn Arena to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lausanne have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, Lausanne have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Thun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.90. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Lausanne against 0.70 for FC Thun. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lausanne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Thun in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lausanne, 2 for FC Thun and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lausanne — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Thun — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 61% and FC Thun 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 65% | FC Thun 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.70 xG and FC Thun 2.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.767 / defence 1.144 | FC Thun attack 1.254 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.642. Lausanne's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Thun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Lausanne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Thun have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 2.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Lausanne games / 44 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 28% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 52%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.57 | Draw 5.00 | FC Thun 1.92. FC Thun hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 2.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 60% | FC Thun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 28% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Lausanne 1.70 / FC Thun 2.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.767 / def 1.144 | FC Thun attack 1.254 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.642 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
2.36
FC Thun xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Thun kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Thun kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Lausanne 4 - 5 FC Thun.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Thun part of?
Lausanne vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 28% chance of winning, FC Thun a 52% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Lausanne and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
Record (4 meetings): Lausanne 1W | Draws 1 | FC Thun 2W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in?
Lausanne (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Thun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.77) and FC Thun's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.25x) against Lausanne's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 2.36.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
28%
3.60
20%
5.06
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Lausanne xG
Total xG
4.06
2.36
FC Thun xG
3.60
28%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
9%
10.55
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
3%
38.00
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lausanne and 2.36 for FC Thun, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Lausanne have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 12W 12D 25L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun's form line: 27W 4D 18L from 49 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.04 PPG from 24 outings (6W 7D 11L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 14W 1D 9L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 2.02 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; FC Thun in 71%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 27W 4D 18L in their last 49 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.04 PPG; FC Thun away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 5-1 on 12 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Thun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Lausanne
1
Draws
3
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
From 5 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC Thun have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Lausanne 4-5 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Lausanne, 75% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Lausanne and 79% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lausanne's games and 75% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Lausanne's matches and 79% of FC Thun's.
Do Lausanne and FC Thun tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out Lausanne 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Lausanne 4-5 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.70 xG and FC Thun 2.36 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Thun outscored their 2.36 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.77 / defence 1.14 against FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 28% | Draw 20% | FC Thun 52%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 65%, FC Thun 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.