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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Thun 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lausanne beat FC Thun 2-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.77 xG and FC Thun 1.56 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.25 / defence 1.04 against FC Thun attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 43% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 34%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 79%, FC Thun 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights