Lausanne 2-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Thun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Thun make the trip to Stade de la Tuiliere to face Lausanne in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lausanne have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Thun's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing away from home: 6W 0D 1L across 7 road games this term (2.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.57 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Thun are 0.60 PPG clear of Lausanne in recent Super League fixtures (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lausanne, 1 for FC Thun and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lausanne — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Thun — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 79% and FC Thun 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 79% | FC Thun 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.77 xG and FC Thun 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.247 / defence 1.039 | FC Thun attack 1.047 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.799 / away 1.435. FC Thun's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Lausanne games / 14 FC Thun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 43% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 34%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | FC Thun 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Thun (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 90% | FC Thun 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 43% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Lausanne 1.77 / FC Thun 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.247 / def 1.039 | FC Thun attack 1.047 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.799 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.56
FC Thun xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Thun kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Thun kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Lausanne 2 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Thun part of?
Lausanne vs FC Thun is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 43% chance of winning, FC Thun a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lausanne and FC Thun will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
Record (1 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 0 | FC Thun 1W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in?
Lausanne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. FC Thun (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.25) and FC Thun's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Thun's attack (1.05x) against Lausanne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 47/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
43%
2.32
23%
4.39
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.33
1.56
FC Thun xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.56 for FC Thun, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 14 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 4W 4D 6L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Thun's form line: 10W 1D 3L from 14 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, FC Thun have gone 6W 0D 1L from 7 away games — 2.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Thun are on 1.86 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; FC Thun in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Thun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Thun in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Thun have gone 10W 1D 3L in their last 14 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Thun away?
FC Thun's away record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.43 PPG; FC Thun away: 2.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 5-1 on 12 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lausanne
1
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Thun?
From 4 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 1, FC Thun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Thun last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when FC Thun 0-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Thun?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Lausanne, 57% for FC Thun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Lausanne and 71% for FC Thun. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Thun in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Thun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Lausanne's games and 57% of FC Thun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Thun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Lausanne's matches and 71% of FC Thun's.
Do Lausanne and FC Thun tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Thun in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Thun 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Thun 2-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.77 xG and FC Thun 1.56 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.25 / defence 1.04 against FC Thun attack 1.05 / defence 0.79, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 43% | Draw 23% | FC Thun 34%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 79%, FC Thun 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
FC Thun's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.