Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuiliere in Super League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lausanne — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lausanne at 1.30 PPG versus FC ST. Gallen's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Lausanne's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, FC ST. Gallen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches against 1 for Lausanne.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2025, ended Lausanne 0–1 FC ST. Gallen — a FC ST. Gallen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 6 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 59% and FC ST. Gallen 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 59% | FC ST. Gallen 56%). Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.37 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.965 / defence 1.003 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.103 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.559. Data: built from Lausanne's last 55 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 54.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 29% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 44%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 3.45 | Draw 3.75 | FC ST. Gallen 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (FC ST. Gallen 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 10 home games and FC ST. Gallen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 70% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 29% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Lausanne 1.37 / FC ST. Gallen 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.965 / def 1.003 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.103 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.559 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.72
FC ST. Gallen xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 23) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 29% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 55 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
29%
3.45
27%
3.75
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.09
1.72
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
5%
19.35
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.72 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 18D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.53 PPG from 59 outings (25W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.32 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 14W 6D 10L across their last 30 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.59 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 64%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 20W 18D 21L in their last 59 games (1.32 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 25W 15D 19L in their last 59 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Lausanne's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.60 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 60%, FC ST. Gallen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lausanne) and 50% (FC ST. Gallen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC ST. Gallen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lausanne's games and 67% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 50% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Lausanne's recent matches and 70% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 23, as Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.37 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 29% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 44%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 59%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.