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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 23, as Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.37 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.10 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 29% | Draw 27% | FC ST. Gallen 44%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 59%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights