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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Luzern cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lausanne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Luzern beat Lausanne 1-3 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Relegation Group - 35, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.43 xG and FC Luzern 1.69 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Luzern outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against FC Luzern attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lausanne 30% | Draw 28% | FC Luzern 42%, with FC Luzern to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 64%, FC Luzern 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lausanne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.32 PPG, FC Luzern 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights