Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuiliere. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 October 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Tuiliere, Lausanne have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lausanne are significantly better at Stade de la Tuiliere than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Basel 1893 stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Basel 1893 are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lausanne register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, FC Basel 1893 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lausanne, 1 for FC Basel 1893 and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2025, ended 2–3 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 60% and FC Basel 1893 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 60% | FC Basel 1893 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.177 / defence 0.967 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.219 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.431. FC Basel 1893's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Lausanne games / 42 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 38% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 39%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | FC Basel 1893 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Basel 1893 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lausanne 70% | FC Basel 1893 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de la Tuiliere • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 38% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Lausanne 1.64 / FC Basel 1893 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.177 / def 0.967 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.219 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.431 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Basel 1893 xG
66%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 5 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuiliere.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 38% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Record (6 meetings): Lausanne 2W | Draws 3 | FC Basel 1893 1W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in?
Lausanne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.18) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
38%
2.66
23%
4.36
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lausanne xG
Total xG
3.33
1.69
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
8%
13.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.69 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 16W 14D 17L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 28W 7D 12L from 47 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Basel 1893 are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (13W 3D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 12W 5D 7L from 24 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.34 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 in 62%.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 28W 7D 12L in their last 47 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Lausanne or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 58%, FC Basel 1893 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lausanne and 71% for FC Basel 1893. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lausanne's games and 67% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 71% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Basel 1893.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Basel 1893 5-1 at Stade de la Tuiliere, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.64 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.69 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.22 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 38% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 39%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lausanne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 60%, FC Basel 1893 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Lausanne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.