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Dominant FC Sion run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Grasshoppers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat Grasshoppers 0-4 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.26 xG and FC Sion 1.43 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Grasshoppers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Sion outscored their 1.43 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 30% | Draw 31% | FC Sion 38%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 52%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Sion's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grasshoppers 0.94 PPG, FC Sion 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights