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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Grasshoppers and FC Basel 1893 drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.68 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.53 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 42% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 35%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grasshoppers 55%, FC Basel 1893 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grasshoppers's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights