🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as FC Zurich defy the odds to beat FC Thun 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Zurich beat FC Thun 2-1 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.23 xG and FC Thun 2.49 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Thun landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.95 / defence 1.28 against FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.77, drawn from 63/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 15% | Draw 22% | FC Thun 63%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a FC Zurich win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 80% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 80%, FC Thun 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

FC Thun's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with FC Zurich winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights