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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Sion edge out FC Zurich 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Sion beat FC Zurich 1-2 at Letzigrund Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Zurich 1.51 xG and FC Sion 1.63 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Zurich attack 0.96 / defence 1.27 against FC Sion attack 0.86 / defence 0.92, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Zurich 33% | Draw 29% | FC Sion 38%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Zurich 69%, FC Sion 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Zurich's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Sion's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Zurich 1.25 PPG, FC Sion 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Sion win broke the near-deadlock. FC Sion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights