FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Vaduz at 48%, yet in-form FC Zurich provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as FC Vaduz welcome FC Zurich to Rheinpark Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Vaduz stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rheinpark Stadion, FC Vaduz have gone 3W 0D 2L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Vaduz are significantly better at Rheinpark Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Zurich have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Zurich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Zurich's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Zurich's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Vaduz's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Vaduz, 1 for FC Zurich and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Zurich winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Vaduz trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Zurich trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Vaduz 92% and FC Zurich 92% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Vaduz 100% | FC Zurich 92%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Vaduz 2.44 xG and FC Zurich 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Vaduz attack 1.164 / defence 1.009 | FC Zurich attack 1.152 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.744. Data: 12 FC Vaduz games / 45 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Vaduz 48% | Draw 19% | FC Zurich 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Vaduz 2.08 | Draw 5.26 | FC Zurich 3.03. FC Vaduz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Vaduz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Zurich (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Vaduz 80% | FC Zurich 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rheinpark Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Vaduz 48% | Draw 19% | FC Zurich 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG FC Vaduz 2.44 / FC Zurich 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC Vaduz attack 1.164 / def 1.009 | FC Zurich attack 1.152 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.744 • Poisson stance: FC Vaduz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
FC Vaduz xG
Expected Goals
2.03
FC Zurich xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich kick off?
FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Rheinpark Stadion.
Where is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Rheinpark Stadion.
What competition is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich part of?
FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives FC Vaduz a 48% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 33% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Vaduz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both FC Vaduz and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Zurich?
Record (1 meetings): FC Vaduz 0W | Draws 0 | FC Zurich 1W.
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich in?
FC Vaduz (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Zurich (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Vaduz's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against FC Zurich's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.44. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus FC Vaduz's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-2, at 7.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Vaduz Win
48%
2.09
19%
5.20
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
1 – 2
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
FC Vaduz xG
Total xG
4.47
2.03
FC Zurich xG
2.09
48%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.59
9%
11.48
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.0%.
How many goals are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 2.03 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 4.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Vaduz's recent record stands at 3W 1D 8L from 12 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Zurich, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 4L across 12 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Zurich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Zurich by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Vaduz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Vaduz have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — FC Vaduz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Zurich's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Vaduz are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 2.08 scored and 2.17 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Vaduz have seen both teams score in 92% of their recent games; FC Zurich in 92%.
Last 12 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Vaduz
Blended
FC Zurich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Vaduz and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
FC Vaduz have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Vaduz at home or FC Zurich away?
FC Vaduz's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Vaduz at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Vaduz
0
Draws
1
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Vaduz and FC Zurich?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Vaduz have won 0, FC Zurich have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Vaduz and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when FC Zurich 2-1 FC Vaduz.
Who has won more matches between FC Vaduz and FC Zurich?
FC Zurich have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Vaduz at 80%, FC Zurich at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for FC Vaduz and 80% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Vaduz home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Vaduz play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of FC Vaduz's games and 80% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Vaduz vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Vaduz's matches and 80% of FC Zurich's.
Do FC Vaduz and FC Zurich tend to score early?
FC Vaduz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.