FC Thun 5-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lausanne make the trip to Stockhorn Arena to face FC Thun in Super League (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Thursday 12 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
FC Thun (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lausanne's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward FC Thun. A 0.80 PPG lead over Lausanne (2.10 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from FC Thun's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lausanne in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended FC Thun 1–2 Lausanne — a Lausanne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Thun — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lausanne — key trading statistics (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 74% and Lausanne 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 78% | Lausanne 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.51 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.171 / defence 0.991 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.526. Lausanne bring a tight defence (rating 0.758, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling FC Thun's projected output down. Data: built from FC Thun's last 23 games and Lausanne's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC Thun 41% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.46 | Draw 3.37 | Lausanne 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Thun are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Thun if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Thun's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Thun 70% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 12 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 41% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FC Thun 1.51 / Lausanne 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.171 / def 0.991 | Lausanne attack 0.844 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.526 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Lausanne xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Thun vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC Thun vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Thun vs Lausanne kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs Lausanne?
FC Thun 5 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Thun vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs Lausanne part of?
FC Thun vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 41% chance of winning, Lausanne a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Thun and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Thun vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.17) and Lausanne's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.84x) against FC Thun's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from FC Thun's last 23 games and Lausanne's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.37
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Thun xG
Total xG
2.79
1.28
Lausanne xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Thun vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Thun and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.28 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 23 outings, FC Thun have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 17W 1D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lausanne's form line: 7W 8D 8L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D.
Put side by side, FC Thun are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Thun have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 11 home games (7W 1D 3L).
On the road, Lausanne have gone 3W 4D 4L from their last 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Thun are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.48 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Lausanne in 70%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
FC Thun (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Thun
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ FC Thun vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC Thun and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 17W 1D 5L in their last 23 games (2.26 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or Lausanne away?
FC Thun's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 2.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won FC Thun 5-1 Lausanne on 12 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Thun have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Thun
1
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Thun vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and Lausanne?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Thun have won 3, Lausanne have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Thun and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Lausanne 4-5 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and Lausanne?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lausanne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for FC Thun, 64% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC Thun and 54% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Thun vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Thun and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Thun's games and 64% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Thun and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC Thun's matches and 54% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Thun and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC Thun's recent matches and 54% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat Lausanne 5-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.51 xG and Lausanne 1.28 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against Lausanne attack 0.84 / defence 0.76, drawn from 23/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 41% | Draw 30% | Lausanne 30%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 78%, Lausanne 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.