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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Grasshoppers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat Grasshoppers 5-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.23 xG and Grasshoppers 1.11 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. FC Thun beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.29 / defence 0.89 against Grasshoppers attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 24% | Grasshoppers 16%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 79%, Grasshoppers 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Grasshoppers's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Grasshoppers (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights