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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Winterthur.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 3-0 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.27 xG and FC Winterthur 1.23 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Winterthur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against FC Winterthur attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 19% | FC Winterthur 20%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 85% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 80%, FC Winterthur 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Winterthur's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights