FC Thun 3-0 FC Winterthur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC Winterthur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Thun and FC Winterthur meet at Stockhorn Arena in Super League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Thun have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Thun's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Stockhorn Arena this term (1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Winterthur (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Winterthur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Winterthur away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in FC Thun's favour (2.20 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Thun have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, FC Winterthur in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
FC Thun half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Winterthur half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 80% and FC Winterthur 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 80% | FC Winterthur 90%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 2.27 xG and FC Winterthur 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 0.913 / defence 1.136 | FC Winterthur attack 0.770 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.846 / away 1.406. FC Winterthur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing FC Thun's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 FC Thun games / 43 FC Winterthur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 19% | FC Winterthur 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | FC Winterthur 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC Thun (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Thun at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 100% | FC Winterthur 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC Winterthur | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Oct 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 61% | Draw 19% | FC Winterthur 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Thun 2.27 / FC Winterthur 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 0.913 / def 1.136 | FC Winterthur attack 0.770 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.846 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.23
FC Winterthur xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC Winterthur kick off?
FC Thun vs FC Winterthur kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 28 October 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC Winterthur?
FC Thun 3 - 0 FC Winterthur.
Where is FC Thun vs FC Winterthur being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC Winterthur part of?
FC Thun vs FC Winterthur is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC Winterthur?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 61% chance of winning, FC Winterthur a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC Winterthur?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Thun and FC Winterthur will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC Winterthur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Winterthur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Thun and FC Winterthur in?
FC Thun (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. FC Winterthur (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Thun's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC Winterthur's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Winterthur's attack (0.77x) against FC Thun's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 10/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
61%
1.64
19%
5.13
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.50
1.23
FC Winterthur xG
1.64
61%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
10%
9.72
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
2%
49.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC Winterthur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC Winterthur expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.23 for FC Winterthur, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC Winterthur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Thun's recent record stands at 7W 1D 2L from 10 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Winterthur, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 7L across 10 games — 0.30 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FC Winterthur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Thun by 1.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Winterthur heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Thun have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
FC Winterthur's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Thun come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Thun are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC Winterthur are on 1.20 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; FC Winterthur in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC Winterthur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC Winterthur in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 games (2.20 PPG), while FC Winterthur have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 (0.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC Winterthur away?
FC Thun's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Winterthur away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Thun have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Thun won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
3
FC Thun
0
Draws
0
FC Winterthur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC Winterthur?
From 3 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 3, FC Winterthur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC Winterthur last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2026, when FC Winterthur 0-3 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC Winterthur?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Winterthur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Thun 100%, FC Winterthur 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Thun and 100% for FC Winterthur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Winterthur in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC Winterthur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC Winterthur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Thun's games and 25% of FC Winterthur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC Winterthur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Thun's matches and 100% of FC Winterthur's.
Do FC Thun and FC Winterthur tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Winterthur in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Thun run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Thun beat FC Winterthur 3-0 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.27 xG and FC Winterthur 1.23 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC Winterthur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 0.91 / defence 1.14 against FC Winterthur attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 61% | Draw 19% | FC Winterthur 20%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 85% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 80%, FC Winterthur 90%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Winterthur's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Thun (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.