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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Thun.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Thun 0-2 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.62 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.58 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Thun fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 39% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 37%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 75%, FC ST. Gallen 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Thun 2.12 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights