FC Thun 0-2 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Thun at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees FC ST. Gallen travel to Stockhorn Arena to take on FC Thun. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Thun have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Thun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stockhorn Arena, FC Thun have gone 5W 1D 2L this season (8 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC ST. Gallen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Thun are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Thun have won 1, FC ST. Gallen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Thun winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Thun trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Thun 69% and FC ST. Gallen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Thun 75% | FC ST. Gallen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Thun 1.62 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Thun attack 1.073 / defence 0.965 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.202 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.358. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 FC Thun games / 49 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Thun 39% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Thun 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | FC ST. Gallen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Thun as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Thun offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC Thun 75% | FC ST. Gallen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stockhorn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Thun 39% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Thun 1.62 / FC ST. Gallen 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Thun attack 1.073 / def 0.965 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.202 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FC Thun (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FC Thun xG
Expected Goals
1.58
FC ST. Gallen xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Stockhorn Arena.
What was the final score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun 0 - 2 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stockhorn Arena.
What competition is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Thun a 39% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Thun the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (1 meetings): FC Thun 1W | Draws 0 | FC ST. Gallen 0W.
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Thun (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Thun's attack rating (1.07) and FC ST. Gallen's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Thun's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Thun Win
39%
2.54
23%
4.27
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FC Thun xG
Total xG
3.20
1.58
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.30
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.4 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.58 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Thun come into this having played 16 games, going 11W 1D 4L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for FC Thun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (9W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Thun on 2.12 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Thun's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Thun are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.94 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Thun have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; FC ST. Gallen in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Thun
Blended
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Thun have gone 11W 1D 4L in their last 16 games (2.12 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 9W 1D 6L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Thun at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Thun's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Thun at home: 1.86 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.86 PPG.
Have FC Thun or FC ST. Gallen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Thun have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC ST. Gallen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Thun's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC Thun
2
Draws
1
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Thun have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 3-4 FC Thun.
Who has won more matches between FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen?
FC Thun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Thun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
FC ST. Gallen see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Thun at 71%, FC ST. Gallen at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Thun and 86% for FC ST. Gallen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Thun home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Thun play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Thun's games and 86% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Thun vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Thun's matches and 86% of FC ST. Gallen's.
Do FC Thun and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Thun have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC ST. Gallen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC Thun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat FC Thun 0-2 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.62 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.58 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC Thun fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.07 / defence 0.96 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 16/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Thun 39% | Draw 23% | FC ST. Gallen 37%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual FC ST. Gallen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 75%, FC ST. Gallen 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Thun's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Thun 2.12 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.