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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Sion 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Sion 1-0 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 2.55 xG and FC Sion 1.55 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Thun fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Sion landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.35 / defence 0.97 against FC Sion attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 58% | Draw 21% | FC Sion 21%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 79%, FC Sion 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sion's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Thun (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights