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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC Thun edge out FC Luzern 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Thun beat FC Luzern 2-1 at Stockhorn Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Thun 1.90 xG and FC Luzern 1.49 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Thun attack 1.25 / defence 0.87 against FC Luzern attack 1.10 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Thun 45% | Draw 27% | FC Luzern 28%, with FC Thun to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Thun 77%, FC Luzern 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Thun's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

FC Luzern's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Thun arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights