FC ST. Gallen 0-0 Yverdon Sport – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Yverdon Sport make the trip to kybunpark to face FC ST. Gallen in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC ST. Gallen (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC ST. Gallen have posted 4W 4D 2L at kybunpark — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
Yverdon Sport's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Yverdon Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yverdon Sport away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FC ST. Gallen, 1.30 for Yverdon Sport — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 2W, Yverdon Sport 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 64% and Yverdon Sport 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 54% | Yverdon Sport 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.92 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.113 / defence 1.091 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.949 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.223. Data: 47 FC ST. Gallen games / 47 Yverdon Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 25%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Yverdon Sport 4.00. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 80% | Yverdon Sport 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.92 / Yverdon Sport 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.113 / def 1.091 | Yverdon Sport attack 0.949 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (53%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Yverdon Sport xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
FC ST. Gallen 0 - 0 Yverdon Sport.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 53% chance of winning, Yverdon Sport a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Record (4 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 2W | Draws 0 | Yverdon Sport 2W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC ST. Gallen's attack rating (1.11) and Yverdon Sport's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Yverdon Sport's attack (0.95x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.45
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.19
1.27
Yverdon Sport xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
4%
27.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.27 for Yverdon Sport, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 21W 14D 17L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Yverdon Sport's form line: 17W 11D 24L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Yverdon Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.19 for Yverdon Sport. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Yverdon Sport have gone 2W 6D 18L from 26 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Yverdon Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Yverdon Sport are on 1.25 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Yverdon Sport
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 21W 14D 17L in their last 52 games (1.48 PPG), while Yverdon Sport have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Yverdon Sport away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.88 PPG; Yverdon Sport away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 on 6 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Yverdon Sport — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
3
Yverdon Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
From 7 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 2, Yverdon Sport have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport?
Yverdon Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for FC ST. Gallen, 62% for Yverdon Sport — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (FC ST. Gallen) and 50% (Yverdon Sport). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yverdon Sport in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Yverdon Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Yverdon Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 62% of Yverdon Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Yverdon Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 50% of Yverdon Sport's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Yverdon Sport in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC ST. Gallen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at kybunpark, Regular Season - 15, as FC ST. Gallen and Yverdon Sport drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.92 xG and Yverdon Sport 1.27 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Yverdon Sport landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Yverdon Sport attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | Yverdon Sport 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, Yverdon Sport 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.48 PPG, Yverdon Sport 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.