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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 3-2 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.31 xG and Lausanne 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 51%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Lausanne's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights