FC ST. Gallen 3-2 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 20 as FC ST. Gallen welcome Lausanne to kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at kybunpark: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lausanne's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC ST. Gallen's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: FC ST. Gallen have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Lausanne have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 4–3 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC ST. Gallen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lausanne trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC ST. Gallen 63% versus Lausanne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 51% | Lausanne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.31 xG and Lausanne 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / defence 0.950 | Lausanne attack 1.094 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.214. Data: 52 FC ST. Gallen games / 52 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Lausanne 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC ST. Gallen dominate the H2H record, yet Lausanne are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC ST. Gallen are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lausanne (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | Lausanne 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: kybunpark • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.31 / Lausanne 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.037 / def 0.950 | Lausanne attack 1.094 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lausanne xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen 3 - 2 Lausanne.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 36% chance of winning, Lausanne a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
Record (5 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 4W | Draws 1 | Lausanne 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Lausanne (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
36%
2.79
31%
3.26
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
2.57
1.26
Lausanne xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.26 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 22W 17D 18L from 57 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 21L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC ST. Gallen on 1.46 PPG, Lausanne on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 14W 9D 5L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 8D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.39 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or Lausanne away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.82 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when FC ST. Gallen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC ST. Gallen's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FC ST. Gallen
2
Draws
1
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, Lausanne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lausanne 1-1 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 71%, Lausanne at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FC ST. Gallen and 64% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 61% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 64% of Lausanne's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out Lausanne 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat Lausanne 3-2 at kybunpark, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.31 xG and Lausanne 1.26 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC ST. Gallen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Lausanne attack 1.09 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 36% | Draw 31% | Lausanne 33%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 51%, Lausanne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.