FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 17 as FC ST. Gallen welcome FC Vaduz to Kybunpark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC ST. Gallen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Kybunpark this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Vaduz stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Vaduz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Vaduz away from home this season: 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC ST. Gallen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Vaduz in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC ST. Gallen, 0 for FC Vaduz and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 3–2 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Vaduz trading profile (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 60% and FC Vaduz 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Vaduz 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.90 xG and FC Vaduz 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.878 / defence 1.045 | FC Vaduz attack 0.823 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.764. Data: 43 FC ST. Gallen games / 10 FC Vaduz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 22% | FC Vaduz 31%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | FC Vaduz 3.23. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 60% | FC Vaduz 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 47% | Draw 22% | FC Vaduz 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.90 / FC Vaduz 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.878 / def 1.045 | FC Vaduz attack 0.823 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.764 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Vaduz xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Kybunpark.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 47% chance of winning, FC Vaduz a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
Record (1 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 0 | FC Vaduz 0W.
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz in?
FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Vaduz (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.88x the league average against FC Vaduz's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Vaduz's attack versus FC ST. Gallen's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.51
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.42
1.52
FC Vaduz xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.52 for FC Vaduz, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC ST. Gallen's recent record stands at 5W 1D 4L from 10 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC ST. Gallen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Vaduz, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 7L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Vaduz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC ST. Gallen by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Vaduz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC ST. Gallen have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Vaduz's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Vaduz's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; FC Vaduz are on 2.10 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; FC Vaduz in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
FC Vaduz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 games (1.60 PPG), while FC Vaduz have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or FC Vaduz away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.40 PPG; FC Vaduz away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
FC ST. Gallen
0
Draws
0
FC Vaduz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
From 1 meetings on record, FC ST. Gallen have won 1, FC Vaduz have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when FC Vaduz 2-3 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Vaduz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC ST. Gallen at 60%, FC Vaduz at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC ST. Gallen and 100% for FC Vaduz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / FC Vaduz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC ST. Gallen play FC Vaduz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 100% of FC Vaduz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Vaduz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 100% of FC Vaduz's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and FC Vaduz tend to score early?
FC ST. Gallen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Vaduz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.