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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out FC Basel 1893 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat FC Basel 1893 2-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.41 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.36 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 38% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 36%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 45%, FC Basel 1893 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with FC ST. Gallen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights