Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen at 38%, yet in-form FC Basel 1893 provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 meet at Kybunpark in Super League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC ST. Gallen haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC ST. Gallen's home record at Kybunpark: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC ST. Gallen are significantly better at Kybunpark than their overall form suggests.
FC Basel 1893's overall Super League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Basel 1893 haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Basel 1893's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Basel 1893 are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC ST. Gallen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Basel 1893 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: FC ST. Gallen 1W, FC Basel 1893 3W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC ST. Gallen — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 63% and FC Basel 1893 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 45% | FC Basel 1893 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 1.41 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.989 / defence 0.938 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.156 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.255. Data: 33 FC ST. Gallen games / 33 FC Basel 1893 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 38% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 36%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | FC Basel 1893 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Basel 1893 (2.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC ST. Gallen 70% | FC Basel 1893 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (6 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 2 | FC Basel 1893 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC ST. Gallen 6 – 9 FC Basel 1893 • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: FC ST. Gallen 17% / Draw 33% / FC Basel 1893 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours FC Basel 1893 (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen as more likely (home 38% / draw 26% / away 36%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L • FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • FC ST. Gallen home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • FC Basel 1893 away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Form edge: FC Basel 1893 lead by 1.40 PPG (2.70 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (FC ST. Gallen): Poisson projects 1.41 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (FC Basel 1893): Poisson projects 1.36 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Over 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~2.8 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.77 (52% Over 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong YES — form rates FC ST. Gallen 7/10, FC Basel 1893 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 56% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours FC Basel 1893 on PPG but Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen higher (38% vs 36% for FC Basel 1893) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 38% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC ST. Gallen 1.41 / FC Basel 1893 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 0.989 / def 0.938 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.156 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Basel 1893 xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 38% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893?
• Record (6 meetings): FC ST. Gallen 1W | Draws 2 | FC Basel 1893 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: FC ST. Gallen 6 – 9 FC Basel 1893 • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: FC ST. Gallen 17% / Draw 33% / FC Basel 1893 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H vs Poisson divergence: H2H favours FC Basel 1893 (historical win rate 50%) but Poisson model rates FC ST. Gallen as more likely (home 38% / draw 26% / away 36%) — current season form and strength ratings are overriding the historical pattern • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 2.77 (52% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 in?
• No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data • FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-L • FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W • FC ST. Gallen home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | CS 2 • FC Basel 1893 away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | CS 3 • Form edge: FC Basel 1893 lead by 1.40 PPG (2.70 vs 1.30) • xG vs form (FC ST. Gallen): Poisson projects 1.41 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.70 — model is more cautious than form; the opposition's defensive strength is tempering the scoring expectation • xG vs form (FC Basel 1893): Poisson projects 1.36 xG vs form scoring rate of 2.30 — model applies a discount on visitor output; home side's defensive record is the key factor • Over 2.5 corroborated — form projects ~2.8 total goals, Poisson xG sum 2.77 (52% Over 2.5 probability) • BTTS: strong YES — form rates FC ST. Gallen 7/10, FC Basel 1893 7/10; Poisson BTTS probability 56% — all signals aligned • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours FC Basel 1893 on PPG but Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen higher (38% vs 36% for FC Basel 1893) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture