FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at kybunpark, Regular Season - 17, as FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 1.47 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.96 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.63 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 28% | Draw 23% | FC Basel 1893 48%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 54%, FC Basel 1893 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

FC Basel 1893's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.44 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights