FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893 – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 0.98x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Basel 1893's attack (1.63x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
28%
3.55
23%
4.27
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
3.43
1.96
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.55
28%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
14%
7.12
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
4%
25.26
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.96 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.