FC ST. Gallen 2-1 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC ST. Gallen at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kybunpark plays host to FC ST. Gallen versus BSC Young Boys in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC ST. Gallen have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, FC ST. Gallen have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
BSC Young Boys (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
BSC Young Boys's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in FC ST. Gallen's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for FC ST. Gallen, 4 for BSC Young Boys and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended FC ST. Gallen 1–4 BSC Young Boys — a BSC Young Boys win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC ST. Gallen half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BSC Young Boys half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC ST. Gallen 65% and BSC Young Boys 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC ST. Gallen 55% | BSC Young Boys 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC ST. Gallen 2.42 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.050 / defence 1.077 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.989 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.721 / away 1.565. BSC Young Boys's defence rating of 1.337 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC ST. Gallen's projected output up. Data: built from FC ST. Gallen's last 55 games and BSC Young Boys's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25%. Fair-value odds: FC ST. Gallen 1.88 | Draw 4.65 | BSC Young Boys 3.97. FC ST. Gallen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.42 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC ST. Gallen at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC ST. Gallen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 4.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC ST. Gallen's last 10 home games and BSC Young Boys's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC ST. Gallen 50% (last 10 home games) | BSC Young Boys 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: Kybunpark • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 February 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% (Under 23%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG FC ST. Gallen 2.42 / BSC Young Boys 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC ST. Gallen attack 1.050 / def 1.077 | BSC Young Boys attack 0.989 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.721 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: FC ST. Gallen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
FC ST. Gallen xG
Expected Goals
1.67
BSC Young Boys xG
75%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys FAQs
What time does FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Wednesday 11 February 2026 at Kybunpark.
What was the final score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
FC ST. Gallen 2 - 1 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at Kybunpark.
What competition is FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC ST. Gallen a 53% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC ST. Gallen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC ST. Gallen's attack at 1.05x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (0.99x) against FC ST. Gallen's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from FC ST. Gallen's last 55 games and BSC Young Boys's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC ST. Gallen Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.65
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
FC ST. Gallen xG
Total xG
4.08
1.67
BSC Young Boys xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.00
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
9%
11.20
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
2%
44.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.67 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, FC ST. Gallen have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 25W 16D 19L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
BSC Young Boys's form line: 26W 16D 18L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for FC ST. Gallen against 1.57 for BSC Young Boys. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC ST. Gallen have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 6D 8L).
On the road, BSC Young Boys have gone 7W 10D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC ST. Gallen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC ST. Gallen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 1.72 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
FC ST. Gallen (Home) vs BSC Young Boys (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC ST. Gallen
Blended
BSC Young Boys
Blended
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Form FAQs
What form are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC ST. Gallen have gone 25W 16D 19L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 26W 16D 18L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC ST. Gallen at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC ST. Gallen's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC ST. Gallen at home: 1.76 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC ST. Gallen won FC ST. Gallen 4-0 BSC Young Boys on 28 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC ST. Gallen have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC ST. Gallen
1
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: BSC Young Boys 2-0 FC ST. Gallen.
Who has won more matches between FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC ST. Gallen 62%, BSC Young Boys 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC ST. Gallen) and 55% (BSC Young Boys). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; BSC Young Boys in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC ST. Gallen home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC ST. Gallen vs BSC Young Boys Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's games and 59% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC ST. Gallen's matches and 55% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC ST. Gallen and BSC Young Boys matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of FC ST. Gallen's recent matches and 69% of BSC Young Boys's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out BSC Young Boys 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC ST. Gallen beat BSC Young Boys 2-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.42 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.67 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.99 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 55%, BSC Young Boys 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.