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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC ST. Gallen edge out BSC Young Boys 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC ST. Gallen beat BSC Young Boys 2-1 at Kybunpark, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC ST. Gallen 2.42 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.67 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC ST. Gallen attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against BSC Young Boys attack 0.99 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC ST. Gallen 53% | Draw 22% | BSC Young Boys 25%, with FC ST. Gallen to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC ST. Gallen 55%, BSC Young Boys 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

BSC Young Boys's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC ST. Gallen 1.52 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC ST. Gallen win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights